At the final RIBA Horizons 2034 webinar key contributors explored the intersection between themes in a global context and assessed future opportunities for architects
In the words of RIBA past president Sunand Prasad, the RIBA Horizons 2034 programme has yielded ‘an amazingly rich set of reflections, information and analysis’. And yet, as the final instalment of this foresight-gathering exercise demonstrated, many questions remain unanswered, including: ‘What does it all mean for the built environment and specifically for the practice of architecture?’
The session brought together theme editors Alice Moncaster, Astrid Haas and Phil Bernstein, Prasad and the RIBA head of economic research Adrian Malleson, plus David Light of Autodesk to round off the four themes of environment, economics, technology and population. As Prasad commented, ‘the intersection of these themes is where the exciting conversations and opportunities are’.
This animated concluding session explored this interconnectedness, highlighting, in Malleson’s words, ‘where we can position ourselves for future success, and how we can shape the future’.
Global discrepancy
A point reiterated throughout the discussion was the discrepancy between global north and south. In the north, population growth is predicted to remain almost static to 2050. Across the south, however, populations are increasing rapidly, with that of Africa set to double in that time. The world had already reached the 8 billion mark by 2022, but, said Haas, ‘the poorest 50% of the world owns only 1% of it’.
There is also an enormous difference in carbon emissions, with Africa responsible for ‘a fraction’ of Europe’s. Importantly, said Moncaster, ‘across Europe we already have pretty much all the buildings we need, but energy use per capita is very high’. To lower these emissions, we should be ‘radically reducing our embodied carbon by minimising new build…and reducing operational carbon in our existing buildings through appropriate retrofits’ she summarised. ‘If I were setting up a practice in the global north right now I would be focusing on renovation and restoration,’ agreed Bernstein.
Conversely, in the global south, new build is drastically needed. ‘Cities, particularly in emerging economies, are going to have to accommodate nearly one billion more people,’ said Haas, ‘And that built environment is not yet there – it needs to be constructed – so there is a major opportunity.’
Fundamentally, this construction must respect local context for the population to thrive, as Moncaster elaborated: ‘Africa already suffers from little resilience, poverty and exposure to harsh climates…understanding regional differences [via the lived experiences of communities] is essential for ensuring a just transition.’
Growth and cities
‘Across history and across the globe, people have been moving to cities in search of opportunity’ said Haas. When they function well, cities are able to mitigate the downsides of density and unleash the benefits of productivity and innovation. ‘But we are not getting it right,’ she said. Real estate is ‘financialised’, remote ownership facilitated, the poor neglected, and the world left facing a housing crisis.
Bernstein elaborated on the role of the architect in this economic picture. ‘What we do as architects is convert big piles of money into buildings,’ he said. ‘We are at the front end of a very complex chain of global financial structures that are super-interested in built assets right now. And we are going to continue to do it … until there is some top-line, policy-level change that affects the flow of capital markets.’ Moncaster shared this view: ‘Without a much stronger control or regulation… there won’t be anything to push us towards making the right choices’.
What’s needed is a paradigm shift. Is there space for such a thing? asked Prasad. Could we even begin to measure growth spiritually rather than economically, such as through ‘Gross National Happiness’? ‘GDP growth is not a sufficient condition,’ agreed Haas. ‘We may be moving the numbers one way but that that doesn’t mean we are distributing the outcomes, in fact we are going further and further away from that’. But such shifts take generations, beyond the scope of the 10-year horizon. ‘How we can distribute the outcomes of GDP growth to benefit the majority…that’s where the conversation should go.’
But is there nothing we can do to improve the state of our cities meanwhile? In terms of biodiversity, for instance, while increased urbanism is damaging ecosystems via different mechanisms, blue green infrastructure and other urban greening strategies help mitigate loss and build climate resistance. ‘We need green solutions to be incorporated into building projects as standard [and to] avoid green gentrification,’ Moncaster said. Indeed, she argued, climate change may well ‘force a paradigm shift’ upon us very soon.
Technology, employment and education
And what of technology? ‘There is the tendency to think that technological tools are magic and will solve our problems,’ Bernstein argued. The future lies not in ‘cool new gadgets’ but in strategically harnessing technologies, mindful of ethics, equity and risk.
Perhaps the biggest disruptor is AI, which has the potential to revolutionise efficiency, but at devastating environmental cost. Tech generally also risks supplanting jobs, including jeopardising the manual labour that emerging economies currently rely on.
Bernstein, Light and Haas approached this debate from different perspectives. ‘Roles shift significantly as technology opens up, creating new services and propositions,’ said Light. ‘It will need a significant mindset shift, but I do believe [architects] should see these technological solutions as an opportunity.’
Haas, on the other hand, reiterated the importance of construction labour for sub-Saharan economies. ‘The professions that are emerging [from technological change] require a high skill set,’ she argued. ‘What I am speaking about is a billion people in 25 years moving to cities looking for jobs …[these new roles] are not going to satisfy …this vast number of people’.
But AI may help break down the siloes contributing to our current problems. In the future, speculated Prasad, we will see that ‘where interdisciplinarity became the dominant theme in how we work, AI was there to help us navigate it with extraordinary processing power and capacity to integrate vastly different fields of knowledge’. Collaboration will be key to delivering an equitable future built environment. ‘Maybe we can’t design out poverty,’ said Moncaster, ‘[But perhaps we can] use technology to do the grunt work to give us time to think’.
‘I really believe in the power of education,’ she continued. ‘Not just teaching facts that people can regurgitate [but in the] opportunity to come together and discuss things with very different people, and to develop our understanding of what the problems are from a much wider perspective than our own.’
Sharing knowledge can indeed help rebalance opportunities. ‘The number of built environment professionals per capita in sub-Saharan Africa is low; we are having to import our design thinking,’ Haas said. ‘Being able to upskill professionals whose lived experience is in the environment they are trying to change, is a first critical step.’
Design in perspective
To conclude, Prasad asked panellists: ‘What is the capacity of design?’
‘I am split,’ admitted Moncaster. ‘Architecture as a profession has a certain arrogant sense of itself, that design can provide the solution to problems. However, there is something about an architecture education that … does push people to think more widely and encourage people to look from different perspectives.’ This outlook surely places architects in a unique position.
‘In emerging economies, it is estimated that two thirds of the built environment is yet to be built…In this two thirds there is the need to be creative,’ said Haas. ‘Seek to work with communities and individuals from radically different backgrounds. Ask: “Do I value this voice? Do I value this opinion? Why is this opinion different from mine?”.’ In so doing, opportunities will be unleashed, she said.
‘We are coming to a moment now where there are huge collaborative opportunities’ urged Bernstein. ‘Experiment in a collaborative way and see if this thesis about the free-flow of information really has legs’.
Watch the RIBA Horizons 2034: Reflecting on the Horizons webinar on RIBA Academy here.
For foresight on the themes of the environmental challenge, the economics of the built environment, population change and technological innovation see RIBA Horizons 2034 (architecture.com)