Why demographics count for developers

I meet Ronn Yong, the developer of 1000 Trees, on a wet April day in Shanghai. The rain is coming down so hard that the exterior view we’re hoping to get of Heatherwick Studio’s landmark scheme is obscured by a thick, grey mizzle. We make a dash – umbrellas in hand – out onto one of the large tree-lined balconies.

As we retreat inside for lunch with Craig Miller, partner and head of Heatherwick’s China studio, our conversation turns to demographics and the pivotal place it plays in investment in development.

1000 Trees is one of the most spectacular projects of recent years in China. It has been designed with the needs of the burgeoning population in mind, tapping into the citizens of Shanghai’s yearning for urban respite. It provides a verdant, riverside oasis in the world’s third largest megacity. At almost 30 million, the population of Shanghai continues to grow at a rate of 2.25 per cent a year. The site on a bend in the Suzhou Creek, has been boldly reimagined as two tree-covered mountains. More than 1,000 trees and 250,000 plants step up the two monumental masses. The vegetation is bedded in precast decorative planters, capping supporting columns.

Yong is director of design and development at Hong Kong-founded Tian An China Investments, the developer behind 1000 Trees. He tells me how the post-Covid slowdown in consumer spending has hit retail inside the first ‘mountain’. But Shanghai’s continuing population growth, driven by urbanisation and increased prosperity, means that Tian An is undeterred and shifting into the scheme’s second phase, which includes a hotel, creative offices, the adaptation of heritage buildings and a riverside promenade.

An international view of development and demographics

Born in Malaysia, Yong lived, trained and practised as an architect in North America, working on major urban restoration projects, such as Van Dijk, Pace, Westlake & Partners’ adaptation of Cleveland’s 1930s central post office into 90,000m² of offices at MK Ferguson Plaza. In Houston, he worked on a masterplan for a 1,600ha residential community including, a 36-hole golf course. Back in Malaysia, he joined Tian An China and has continued to work with it and its associated companies for over three decades.

In North America, Malaysia, Vietnam, Australia and China, Yong has worked across a huge number of sectors from healthcare and retail, to housing, commercial, education and leisure. This has extended to theme parks and creating spaces for retirees. Despite his extensive experience, his fascination with his job remains palpable. He talks with energy about meeting the challenges of shifting needs and desires driven by changes in demography. ‘The target market demographic is constantly changing,’ he says. ‘It allows me to think more sensitively.’

He has learned from hoteliers the importance of undertaking a demographic study before undertaking a project. This highlights ‘the target and surrounding market. What’s short? What’s lacking? What’s the competition, what can we do, what does the market need, what’s the next trend and our positioning?’ Two projects, many decades apart, demonstrate how Yong has used demography to find and target his niche market.

Leisure Farm, Iskandar, Malaysia

Thirty-five years ago, Yong started working at Tian An’s Australian sister company, on a 700ha green site in Iskandar, Malaysia. It was all about understanding the requirements and aspirations of the target audience: prosperous Singaporean and expat families. Located a mere 17km drive from Singapore, Leisure Farm is situated within the main southern development investment corridor of Johor, Malaysia.

Unlike Malaysian homeowners, who require a large number of bedrooms for a big family, wealthy Singaporean families typically have small families or are professional couples with no children. Yong understood that it was not the size of accommodation alone that would draw purchasers away from apartment living in Singapore, but the quality and appeal of the natural environment. He took a similar approach to that of development projects he had experience of in Houston, such as Exxon’s Woodlands campus.

Yong explains: ‘The first thing I did when I went to Leisure Farm was to ensure the preservation of its natural resources, enhancing its waterways and rivers in a natural and friendly design that Singapore lacks. A canal, streams and ponds were excavated to develop a continuous system of waterways as the spine for clusters of residential development. This was to form the mind, body and soul of the eco-chic development.’

He talks ardently about its benefits for residents. ‘The riverside-living lifestyle allows residents to fish off their sheltered decks, feed the ducks and create total waterway living in a garden environment,’ he says. ‘Out of this developed the mind, body and soul concept with parks, leisure services and community centres. Fed off the waterways were pathways with a network of linkways fusing each housing development together as a community within the woods …

‘The sense of space in the surrounding verdant landscape was carried over into the design of the homes themselves, which feature skylights, light wells, courtyards and atrium, and most often a swimming pool, reflection pools or koi ponds tucked into the house itself, adjacent to the living and dining areas to recreate new “in-between spaces”, which are most fascinating in the tropical environment.’

The strong use of nature was balanced out by security concerns for Singaporean homeowners living outside their usual urban environment. The schemes were further sub-gated to give Singaporean owners a sense of comfort and physical safety. Plots were laid out on freehold properties of a quarter, half or a single acre (0.1, 0.2 and 0.4ha), and generously planned compared with homes in Singapore. Each area of housing is designed by a different architect to give it a distinct character.

The boutique concept is retained by ongoing investment in the environment. Every year, 2.5 million Singapore dollars a year (£1.5 million) is spent maintaining the landscape and another 4 or 5 million spent on upgrading it. As copycat developments have sprung up locally, the company is mindful of not overselling or developing the site, thus retaining its luxury appeal and so customer demand.

1000 Trees Unbound Hotel

Just as Leisure Farm led the way in its treatment for its target customer, it was important to Yong that 1000 Trees’ hotel in particular stood out from other destination hotels by meeting a market need among a particular demographic. Extensive market research informed the positioning of the hotel, helping understand consumer trends.

‘In China, there is a trend for young women leading the direction of travel as the decision-makers,’ he says. ‘Whether they are single or married, they have friends or partners that they want to spend time with. They are educated, young professionals. This is a generational shift. Young women make up 70-80 per cent of cultural consumers. This is apparent when visiting art museums and galleries where they make up the majority of visitors.’

It was also a means of maximising the complex of stepped-back outdoor terraces in Heatherwick Studio’s design for the hotel’s concept. ‘1000 Trees creates a journey, like an expedition to the mountainside overlooking the bend in the Suzhou Creek,’ he says. ‘Rooms are created as your campsite with deep private balconies each with a living column of trees and dripping plants. So, when you go into the room’s interior, you feel like you're going into a very down-to-earth resort cabin.

‘The materials used are very eco-friendly and warm. It's very soothing. It gives you that feel that you're going on a field trip. Picnic boxes with lantern lamps and a tarpaulin canopy are provided for guests to enjoy being out on a camping excursion in a city on the terrace, drinking coffee or tea, or having a glass of wine, overlooking the river with a park view below to Shanghai. You can also camp outside in a tent on the balcony. This gives you the privacy of your own getaway space and the terrace, where the kids can stay and camp outside.’

Yong believes that to be successful, the hotel must create a unique experience of living in the 1000 Trees mountain by the Suzhou Creek, motivating hotel guests to return and to tell their friends about it. It needs to add up to more than a social media trend.

Meeting the needs of an ageing population in China

Another important demographic that Yong’s work has targeted is ageing clients. Yong has collaborated with colleagues in Australia on various residential models for ageing clients, often incorporating independent living with separate facilities for assisted living and nursing care.

In China, the ethos of caring for elderly family members within the home remains strong and there are few international-class residential retirement homes. However, this proves challenging for the children of elderly parents, who often have no siblings and are working full time. To cater for elderly parents’ needs, while retaining the family bond, Yong’s company is looking at developing a housing model for the Shanghai market that is popular in Malaysia and Singapore. Referred to as the ‘dual key’ apartment, each flat is divided into two keys. You enter a common vestibule before the accommodation is split into two distinct areas. One unit is for ‘the child’ and their family while the other is for their parent, and can also accommodate a carer in an adjacent room.

What next?

Although in Japan and Korea, ageing and low birth rates are starting to have an impact on the population of cities, in China urbanisation continues. As Yong says, the current urban population of about 50 per cent is projected to grow to 70 per cent, fuelled by internal migration. City governments are continuing to invest in infrastructure. China’s biggest megacity, Shanghai, now has over 450 metro stations.

Yong identifies the biggest sector from a development point of view as the older generation – the baby boomers – who are the most affluent, having worked for longer. The younger generation of graduates often struggle to find work and are unable to purchase properties. When they do have money, they are more likely to spend it on experiences and travelling.

For architects, Yong has some sage advice. He says working with demographic drivers requires ‘thinking outside the box’ and ‘designing human-centred spaces with greater flexibility in mind for future generations while preserving the natural environment’. With generational shifts and cultural changes, Yong acknowledges ‘it is important to be able to build in adaptability for co-living spaces for future tenants to renovate their properties without major renovation costs’.

Whatever his target market, Yong remains intent on ‘finding that niche to differentiate ourselves and push that edge, because opportunity only knocks once’.

For more on demographics, see the Population Change theme of RIBA Horizons 2034